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Pubblicazioni, working paper e contributi a conferenze: inferenza causale, digitalizzazione del settore pubblico, sanità, istituzioni e territorio.

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Job Market Paper

• Working paper Caravaggio, N., Resce, G., & Santangelo, A. E. (2025). EU cohesion policy and digital public services. ESDP No. 25100, University of Molise. PDF → · Pagina del paper →
  In revisione: Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
  Abstract

  This paper investigates the impact of European Cohesion Funds on the digitalization of local governments in Italy, using the quality of municipal websites as a proxy for e-government capacity. Using web scraping techniques and a generalized Difference-in-Differences approach, the study examines whether municipalities that received targeted EU funding for digital networks and services experienced improvements in website technological sophistication. The results show that cohesion funds have contributed to the adoption of modern web standards, particularly HTML5, and to the simplification of website structure, indicating progress in the core aspects of digital infrastructure. These effects are especially pronounced in smaller municipalities and those located in the South and Inner Areas, suggesting that the cohesion policy can support digital convergence in structurally disadvantaged contexts. However, the absence of systematic improvements in broader dimensions of web interactivity points to the selective nature of these advancements.

Pubblicazioni peer-reviewed

• Peer-reviewed Carneiro, B., Resce, G., Caravaggio, N., Santangelo, A. E., Ruscica, G., Tucci, G., … & Coffey, K. (2025). Text mining and machine learning reveal global determinants of food insecurity. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 36709. PDF →
  Abstract

  This study applies Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Machine Learning (ML) to investigate global historical trends in food security. Using USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network’s (FEWS NET) comprehensive reports spanning over two dozen countries, it explores prevalent dimensions such as shocks, outcomes, and coping capacities, offering insights into long-term food security conditions. Results highlight the prevalence of market and climate impacts across the countries and period considered. Based on results from the topic classification, ML models were applied to determine the most important factors that predict food insecurity. The analysis confirmed market shocks as the main predictors of food insecurity globally. The approach demonstrates the potential for extracting valuable insights from narrative sources that can support decision-making and strategic planning. This integrated approach not only enhances understanding of food security but also presents a versatile tool applicable beyond the context of humanitarian aid.

  → Progetto collegato: Climate Security Observatory
• Peer-reviewed Pastore, L., Corvo, L., Santangelo, A. E., Resce, G., & Lelo, A. (2025). Measuring sustainability impacts through SROI: a case study of the Italian glass industry’s contribution to the SDGs. Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 38(5), 1483–1498. PDF →
  Abstract

  Purpose. This study investigates the contribution of the Italian glass industry to sustainability, with a focus on its alignment with selected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically SDGs 6, 7, 8, 12 and 13.

  Design/methodology/approach. The research applies the Social Return on Investment (SROI) methodology to evaluate the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of the Italian glass supply chain from 2022 to 2050, with insights gained through extensive stakeholder engagement.

  Findings. The results reveal a positive SROI ratio of 2.53, indicating substantial value creation across multiple dimensions. Social impacts emerge as the most significant, representing 44.2% of total value generated, primarily through employment creation. Economic impacts account for 39.5%, driven by energy and material savings, while environmental impacts contribute 16.3% through decarbonisation efforts and improved resource efficiency. The study demonstrates how the glass industry’s sustainability initiatives align with and contribute to multiple SDGs while also highlighting the challenges in balancing environmental imperatives with socioeconomic outcomes.

  Practical implications. The findings provide valuable insights for industry practitioners and policymakers on measuring and managing sustainability impacts in energy-intensive sectors, offering a replicable framework for evaluating progress towards SDG targets.

  Originality/value. This study contributes to the limited literature on sustainability accounting in energy-intensive sectors by providing a comprehensive assessment of the Italian glass industry’s contribution to SDGs. It offers a novel application of SROI methodology to evaluate long-term sustainability impacts while demonstrating how traditional industries can transform their practices to support SDGs.

• Peer-reviewed Santangelo, A. E. (2023). The relationship between financial constraints and innovation, with a supportive analysis on a sample of firms. Journal of Academic Research in Economics, 15(3), 523–544. PDF →
  Abstract

  The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of financial constraints on firms’ innovative activities. While this topic has been extensively studied in the economic literature, research, and development (R&D) activities present peculiarities that tend to discourage investment due to the uncertainty of outcomes. As a consequence, a firm may have little or no incentive to invest in research, despite the fact that it has the potential to increase the social surplus. To answer this research question, a probit regression analysis was conducted on a heterogeneous sample of European and Asian firms to examine how the presence of financial constraints affects the probability of innovation success.

• Peer-reviewed Pietrovito, F., & Santangelo, A. E. (2022). Divario Nord-Sud: un focus sul Molise. GLOCALE, 18(19). citation →
  Abstract

  Il presente contributo si pone l’obiettivo di sottoporre a verifica empirica il processo di convergenza economica tra le regioni italiane nel ventennio 2000-2021, caratterizzato da tre shock esogeni globali – la crisi economico-finanziaria del 2008, la crisi del debito sovrano, che ha interessato la zona Euro nel 2010-2011, e la crisi pandemica del 2020 – e di individuarne il posizionamento del Molise. I risultati dell’analisi del fenomeno sottoposto a verifica empirica mostrano l’assenza di un processo di convergenza tra le regioni italiane nel periodo analizzato e un posizionamento del Molise tra quelle che hanno sperimentato un livello di partenza del Pil pro-capite e un tasso di crescita nel periodo successivo inferiore rispetto alla media nazionale. Approfondendo l’analisi delle determinanti del processo di crescita di lungo periodo, si osserva che il Molise ha un potenziale notevole, grazie al suo capitale umano e alla sua forza lavoro istruita, ma affronta sfide significative legate alla dotazione infrastrutturale e alla diversificazione settoriale.

Working paper

• Working paper Caravaggio, N., Resce, G., & Santangelo, A. E. (2026). Digital investment and the evolution of government services. ESDP No. 26104, Università del Molise. PDF →
  In revisione: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.
  Abstract

  This paper examines whether public investments in digital infrastructure improve citizen-facing government performance. We combine administrative data on the staggered rollout of a large-scale digitalization program with high-frequency social-media data for Italian municipalities, using online communication as a proxy for public service delivery. Exploiting variation in treatment timing, we estimate causal effects across access, usage, and outcomes. Digital investments increase municipalities’ online presence and communication activity: treated municipalities are more likely to adopt social media, post more frequently, and generate higher aggregate engagement. However, improvements in effectiveness are limited in the short run. Engagement per post remains unchanged, and gains in communication quality, measured by readability, emerge only gradually. These findings suggest that while digital investments expand activity, translating them into effective communication requires time and complementary capabilities.

• Working paper Caravaggio, N., Resce, G., & Santangelo, A. E. (2026). The Italian Municipality Equitable and Sustainable Well-being Index (MESWI). arXiv preprint arXiv:2608.26426. arXiv →
  Abstract

  This paper develops the Municipal Equitable and Sustainable Well-being Index (MESWI) for all Italian municipalities, extending the 12-domain BES framework to the local level through 49 indicators. Results reveal substantial territorial heterogeneity that regional and provincial statistics may conceal. The North-South divide remains the dominant geographical pattern and is considerably stronger than the difference between inner and non-inner areas. At the same time, municipalities within the same regions and territorial categories display markedly different well-being profiles. Remoteness is associated with weaker services and socio-economic opportunities but also with stronger environmental performance. The MESWI provides a fine-grained picture of multidimensional well-being and a potential information base for the programming, monitoring and evaluation of place-based policies.

• Working paper Bergantino, A. S., Gabrielli, L., Resce, G., & Santangelo, A. E. (2026). Competition without punctuality gains: evidence from Italian high-speed rail. SSRN working paper. SSRN →
  In revisione: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.
  Abstract

  This study tests whether competitive pressure improves operational efficiency by examining On-Time Performance (OTP) in the context of Italy’s High Speed Rail (HSR) liberalization. In light of the distinction between the public train operations (Trenitalia/NTV-Italo) and the rail infrastructure entity (RFI), we build a panel of Trenitalia OTP using infrastructure punctuality statistics and measure competition intensity by the entry of NTV-Italo. Using a multi-period event-study design encompassing entry of the competitor and OTP outcomes from 2020 to 2025, we find no robust improvement in the incumbent’s OTP when competitive pressure increases. The analysis indicates that competitive entry, by itself, is not associated with systematic changes in observed delay outcomes.

  → Progetto collegato: THEMIA — THE Mood of Infrastructure’s Accessibility
• Working paper Pietrovito, F., Rancan, A., Resce, G., & Santangelo, A. E. (2026). Do fiscal constraints affect health inequality research? A bibliometric perspective. ESDP No. 26102, University of Molise. PDF →
  Abstract

  We conduct a bibliometric analysis to examine the evolution of health inequality research over nearly four decades (1986–2023), drawing data from Scopus, with the aim of analysing the influence of economists’ contributions to this interdisciplinary topic. We collect a total of 3,228 peer-reviewed papers using the keywords: “Health”, “Inequality”, and Economics” (including variations such as “economic” and “economy”). In the second part of the paper we assess the impact of external political and economic shocks, specifically the Fiscal Compact, on academic output related to health inequalities issues. To address this objective, a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach is applied, comparing research trends in countries that faced severe austerity measures with those that did not experience comparable fiscal constraints. Empirical analysis suggests that research output on health inequalities increased significantly in the aftermath of the Fiscal Compact in the affected countries. Our findings highlight how economic policies and austerity measures can influence academic research priorities, potentially as a response to increased societal concerns.

  → Progetto collegato: Conciliare Efficienza ed Equità nel Sistema Sanitario Italiano
• Working paper Cicatiello, L., de Angelis, M., Gaeta, G. L., Prota, F., & Santangelo, A. E. (2025). Do Mobility Incentives Improve Research Performance and Career Outcomes? Evidence from Italy’s AIM Program. SSRN working paper. SSRN →
  Abstract

  Universities are increasingly called upon to foster regional development through high-quality research and knowledge transfer, especially in peripheral and institutionally weak areas. Academic mobility is often promoted as a mechanism to boost scientific productivity and expand international networks, particularly for early-career researchers. This paper evaluates the impact of the Italian AIM (Attraction and International Mobility) program, a targeted policy that funded temporary research positions in universities in Southern Italy with mandatory international mobility. Leveraging a unique dataset combining administrative records, original surveys, and career tracking data, we implement a Difference-in-Differences strategy to estimate the causal effects of the program on research output and career progression. While AIM-supported researchers exhibit publication and citation levels comparable to their non-AIM peers, they face significantly lower chances of obtaining tenure-track or tenured positions. These findings suggest that mobility alone may not translate into career advancement, particularly in contexts with structural hiring constraints. The study highlights the need for integrated mobility and career-stabilization policies to enhance the long-term effectiveness of research funding initiatives.

Contributi a conferenze

• ConferenceCaravaggio, N., Resce, G., & Santangelo, A. E. (2026). Digital investment and the evolution of government services.CARMA 2026, Universitat Politècnica de València, 1–3 July 2026.
• ConferenceCaravaggio, N., Resce, G., & Santangelo, A. E. (2026). Administrative capture from within.AISRe 2026, University of Florence, 24–26 June 2026.
• ConferenceCebrián Cerdá, E., Santangelo, A. E., & Domenech, J. (2025). Are people losing interest in environmental issues? Insights from Google Trends.CARMA 2025, Rome, 2–4 July 2025. URL →
• ConferenceNigro, I., Santangelo, A. E., & Modina, M. (2025). Detecting potential fake innovators using web scraping: the case for Italian startups.CARMA 2025, Rome, 2–4 July 2025. URL →
• ConferenceCaravaggio, N., Di Renzo, G., Fanelli, L., Resce, G., & Santangelo, A. E. (2024). In what is Europe investing? A text mining approach on cohesion projects.CARMA 2024, Valencia. URL →
• ConferenceCarneiro, B., Resce, G., Tucci, G., Ruscica, G., Caravaggio, N., Fanelli, L., Santangelo, A. E., & Cruciata, P. (2024). A multi-platform framework for nowcasting social phenomena: a case study for food insecurity.CARMA 2024, Valencia. URL →
• ConferenceSantangelo, A. E. (2024). Do websites provide information about innovation activities?.CARMA 2024, Valencia, p. 411. URL →