World Cup 2026PREDICTION · REAL DATA

Official groups + FIFA rankings · simulations · 🇮🇹 Versione italiana
DATA FOR PEOPLE

How this prediction is built

From real data to simulation: every step of the process is transparent. Click a step for details. The numbers are the ones actually used.

Title favourites

Probability of winning the tournament (real data)

Probability by stage

How far each team is likely to go

Interactive simulator

Change the model weights and re-run the simulations in your browser (works offline too)
Ranking weight 60%
Attack weight 20%
Defence weight 20%
Simulations 2000

Head-to-head

Win probability in a direct knockout tie

Likely path

Probability of getting past each stage

Simulated groups and bracket

One full simulation: first the groups with their matches, then the knockout stage. Adjust the model weights and regenerate.
Ranking weight 60%
Attack weight 20%
Defence weight 20%

Group stage

Knockout stage

Instant Analytics · real data (official draw + FIFA rankings) · percentages are probabilistic estimates
by Agapito E. Santangelo, PhD · instantanalytics.it